ECI sets RS polls in J&K from Oct 6
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By Shafat Malik
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24 Sep 2025
Four seats vacant since 2021; NC Weighs Farooq Abdullah, Choudhary
BJP mulls Nirmal Singh, Raina
Quota arithmetic points to NC securing three but BJP in contention for one
Srinagar, Sept 24: The Election Commission of India on Wednesday announced the schedule for biennial elections to fill four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir, all of which have remained vacant since February 2021.
The vacancies arose after the retirement of Mir Mohammad Fayaz and Shamsher Singh Manhas on February 10, 2021, and of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmad Laway on February 15, 2021. Their exit coincided with the absence of a Legislative Assembly, which meant no electoral college existed to choose successors.
Under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, four Rajya Sabha seats are allocated to the Union Territory. With the Assembly now in place, the Commission has scheduled three separate elections: one each for the single vacancies of February 10, and one for the two seats that fell vacant on February 15.
According to the notification, the process begins on October 6, with nominations closing on October 13, scrutiny on October 14, and withdrawals by October 16. Polling is set for October 24 between 9 am and 4 pm, followed by counting the same evening. The process will be completed before October 28.
The Commission said separate elections must be held as the vacancies arose in different cycles, a position upheld by the Delhi High Court in 1994 when it dismissed a plea seeking a common poll for multiple seats. The tenure of members elected this year will also be subject to the outcome of a pending Supreme Court matter on the Rajya Sabha election process.
With 88 MLAs in the newly constituted Assembly, the winning quota differs depending on whether a notification is for one seat or two. For the two single-seat elections, the formula, total MLAs divided by (seats+1), plus one sets the quota at 45. For the two-seat election, the quota is lower at 31.
Analysts say this arithmetic favours the ruling National Conference, which commands 42 MLAs and support from smaller groups, giving it the numbers to win both single-seat contests. For the two-seat contest, the NC is comfortably placed to secure one. The BJP, with 28 MLAs, would need three additional votes to cross the quota of 31, a target sources describe as achievable. In effect, observers believe the outcome may tilt 2–2, with NC likely to secure three seats if it consolidates support, and BJP positioned to claim one.
Sources told Rising Kashmir that the National Conference is considering fielding party president Dr Farooq Abdullah, senior leader Choudhary Ramzan, and Sajjad Ahmad Kichloo from Kishtwar. “The party high command will finalise the names after consultations, but these three names are under active consideration,” they said.
Within the BJP, sources said the central leadership is deliberating between former deputy chief minister Dr Nirmal Singh and former state party president Ravinder Raina. “The final call will be taken after consultations with Delhi, but both names are in the reckoning,” they added.
The elections will mark J&K’s return to the Rajya Sabha after a gap of more than four years. Previously, leaders including Ghulam Nabi Azad, Dr Farooq Abdullah, and Mir Mohammad Fayaz represented the region in the Upper House.
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