The Struggle among parties, military and judiciary in Pakistan
D. Suba Chandran
2012 will create history in Pakistan if the political parties managed to work together in reaching a consensus in holding the next elections according to schedule during 2013. However the developments during this week between the major stakeholders–the PPP, military and the ISI leaderships, seem to threaten the tenure of this government. If there is no coup,
this will be the first time in the history of Pakistan politics that a government survived its tenure, without any internal failure or external interference.
Though there is a genuine fear (and exaggerated as well), the military does not have to intervene directly through a coup. It has other options as well – perhaps, a soft coup – by just replacing the PPP led government by another coalition, perhaps led by Imran Khan.
The real issue is-will the political parties work together in 2012, despite serious differences in ensuring democracy services? Or will they bicker for narrow political interests and sacrifice the larger objective of parties in any democratic structure?
Gilani has already made a history by being a prime minister who has served the longest at a stretch. Even Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto could not survive as long as Gilani has so far. Of course, he has had the help, assistance, acumen and the shrewdness of Zardari, the President. It appears even the PPP is looking forward to hold an early election. There is not only pressure for the military but also from the judiciary.
There are two serious issues–Memogate Commission and the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO). Clearly, Zardari, Gilani and Haqqani are on back foot vis-à-vis the memo issue, as the judicial commission enquiring into the controversy is asking for more information. Besides the memo issue and the pressure from the military, the PPP is also under pressure from the judiciary. The revival of the debate on the NRO is a major headache for both the President and the PPP. They are in a dilemma, whether to strike a conciliatory stand, or take on the judiciary.
What we do not understand outside Pakistan is –the NRO is bigger headache for the PPP government than the memo commission and the opposition parties. Given the pressure from the military and the judiciary, the PPP seems to be willing to risk an early election. A coup at this juncture – hard or soft – by the military directly or through another covert coalition supported by the ISI, will help the PPP to become a “martyr of democracy”. Perhaps, the PPP is consciously taking this risk.
The PML-N, the major opposition led by the Sharifs – is the perhaps biggest opportunist party (all parties are?) within Pakistan today. Nawaz Sharif, being a shrewd politician he is, knows well, that the PPP’s image is the lowest today, since it came back to power riding over the wave created by Benazir’s assassination. There is not much of a popular support –thanks to the energy and economic crises – two major problems confronting the common man in Pakistan today. Early this week, trains were stranded for more than ten hours, as there were no diesel to run them. Industries are going slow and the production declining, for the want of energy to run them. The PML-N knows this is the most opportune time for its future, as it could cash on the votes.
More importantly, Nawaz Sharif is worried whether the Imran tsunami would eat into his vote bank. While the PML-N has its own traditional supporters, many people who vote for the party also has a conservative leaning–closer to the religious parties and a subtle pro-Taliban outlook. While there are fewer chances of Imran and his PTI eating into the PPP or MQM vote bank, the Sharifs have much to worry about the latest political tsunami.
The MQM is perhaps the only party in Pakistan that knows clearly what it wants and what its limitations are. Altaf Hussain, knows his vote bank is amongst the Mohajirs settled in urban Sindh, especially Karachi. There is no way Imran could eat into MQM votebank, for he would appeal for the Pashtuns present in Sindh, mainly Karachi. The Pashtun vote in Karachi is divided between the religious parties–mainly the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and JUI-Fazlur Rahman, and the secular Awami National Party (ANP). What the MQM would be worried is – Imran factor uniting all the Pashtuns under one banner in Karachi and becoming a power structure in a Mohajir stronghold. As of today, the struggle for Karachi is no more between the Sindhis and the Mohajirs, rather between the Pashtuns and the Mohajirs. An early election or not, for the MQM, it does not matter. But what matters is growing Imran’s influence in Karachi.
The religious parties led by the JI and JUI-F also ask for an early election. Though they may not agree with Imran Khan, they also fear the PTI would eat into their votebank both in Karachi and in Khyber Pakhtunkwa. The Balochi and Pashtun mainstream regional parties are watching the situation closely and seem to be undecided.
A wild card in the above scenario, is the return of Musharraf and the revival of PML-Q. The rumour is–the military and the ISI will work a coalition between Musharraf and Imran to keep the PML-N and PPP away.
The final question – will the current developments result in a coup or a soft coup? The military and the ISI, is also aware of the economic and energy problems of the country will be a big headache. So is the War on Terrorism. For these two factors, it would resist a direct military coup. Why make the PPP a martyr, if it is already fast losing popular support? Rather the military and ISI would force an early election, and stitch another coalition. If Sharif was the outcome of such a coalition in the 1980s, three decades later, it seems to be Imran Khan. Or, will Kayani become the next President?
Writer is Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies and Visiting Professor, Pakistan Studies Programme, Jamia Millia Islamia. He can be mailed at subachandran@ipcs.org
