Infrastructural devastation caused by flood could be capitalized by the insurgents and might negate the gains Pakistani security forces have made of late
Dr Javid Iqbal
Former Pakistan Prime Minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, once commented on natural disasters hitting the subcontinent more often than the world cares to take notice of.
Whether the world takes note or not, in the neighbouring country, as per news reports fears have been expressed by Pakistani officials that the unprecedented devastation caused by the worst floods in the country's history could open the doors for a Taliban resurgence. Infrastructural devastation could be capitalized by the insurgents and might negate the gains Pakistani security forces have made of late. In the past too the militants have capitalized on the government's failure to provide basic services. The fear is particularly strong in South Wazirstan and the Swat Valley-strongholds of Taliban in the past.
Washington Post reports quote Rahim Dad Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Planning Minister as saying “Officials believe that the situation can only be thwarted if infrastructure is quickly rebuilt-undertakings that will cost billions of dollars and will probably take years. It will take us months just to get the electricity back in Swat. For now, people are living in darkness.” Even with international community coming to aid; the task appears to be gigantic. It is indeed a race against time and could be done only by proper planning and swift implementation. Naturally the infrastructural build-up in the areas deviated by floods would take precedence to the developmental works in hand, as Rahim Dad Khan admitted by saying that “all plans for development in the northwest have been cancelled, and the money diverted to help flood affected people,” ruing "We thought we would build roads, hospitals and schools. But now, everything we were planning is ruined."
Pakistan’s army concurs with the civilian administration fears of Taliban resurgence, the confirmation coming from Brigadier General Tipu Karim, who is overseeing relief efforts for Swat and other north-western areas. He has however sounded a note of optimism that they would not allow this to happen, making out reconstruction the top priority. Over 1,600 people have been killed and 20 million affected, destroying hundreds of thousands of homes, washing away crops and livestock-mostly affecting NWFP. As per UN estimates Pakistan will need billions of dollars to recover from the worst floods in the last 80 years. Apart from natural response of international community to flood devastation, regrouping of insurgents will remain the major international concern.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s apex intelligence agency, as per America’s ‘Wall Street Journal’ has come up with an interesting assessment of security concerns in future. The assessment places 'home-grown' militants as the greatest threat to national security. This is the first time since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947 that India hasn't been viewed as the top threat. The assessment allocates a 'two-thirds' likelihood of a major threat to the state coming from militants rather than from India or elsewhere.
Geo-strategically Pakistan has to balance its eastern concern-vigil on the border with India, where it places about 350,000 of its armed forces with the western concern-the restive NWFP and Pak/Afghan border, burdened with bulk of militancy, where Pakistan has around 150,000 of its forces actively engaged. This works approximately to two third to one third proportion of placement of forces at present. The latest assessment reverses the perception and workout of security concerns on ground. It might release the bulk of forces and ease their shift from eastern to western front-international theatre of concern. In addition to the ones mentioned, Pakistan has about 100,000 men in reserve, which could be mobilized to either of theatres of concern, though lately there has been a tendency towards to western front, obviously because of American prodding, partly out of Pakistan’s own concerns.
American jubilation is understandable, as put forth by Bruce Hoffman-counter-terrorism specialist and professor at Georgetown University. Hoffman says ’it is earth shattering. That's a remarkable change,' adding that 'it's yet another racketing up of the Pakistanis' recognition of not only their own internal problems but cooperation in the war on terrorism.' However Americans would be interested in reading the finer print of ISI’s assessment report, in order to know which of the organizations it would prefer to focus on. Their concern remains the Haqqani network and they would like their concern looped in, Hoffman pointed to that too, while reacting to the report. Given the state of Pakistani economy, the country cannot afford to stay on the wrong side of Americans, as the US gives around $2 billion in military aid to Pakistan annually.
In spite of ISI assessment the perception generally in Pakistan of India being a major threat has not changed and it might be a hard sell for the government to change it, given the fact that some of these militant organizations run a large network of schools, of social activist to address public concerns. This might be a part of their activity, but that is what stays in public perception, added to that is the curriculum pursued in their schools, which gives them a large band of hardcore supporters-committed and dedicated to the cause, as they see it.
ISI’s fresh assessment might upset even their own take of the security scenario in the past, which as alleged made use of these militant organizations to pursue Pakistan’s strategic interests in Afghanistan and Indian administered Kashmir. If the Indian allegations on this count, Afghanistan’s too occasionally, as well as stray notes from concern in US, some European and Middle Eastern countries are held as wholly or partially too; ISI might be in for a house cleaning exercise on a considerable scale. This might be easier said than done; hence the organization could face difficulty in actualising and putting into operation its latest security assessment.
The same is true of armed forces, fed so far on a different line of thinking vis-a-vis the security needs of the country. Major Gen. Athar Abbas, the chief spokesman of the Pakistani military, said he wasn't aware of the assessment and added that India remained a threat. He, however, conceded that it was the ISI's role to draw up security assessments in the country. For the armed forces as well as the nodal intelligence agency fed log on ‘A’ being the main enemy getting the word that it is not ‘A’ now but ‘B’ would be difficulty to digest. Moreover, so far politicians and the media have regularly held India as working to undermine Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan, while some have concerns of India taking more than its share of water, in violation of Indus water treaty. The official projection of India funding separatist insurgency in Balochistan province too has many takers in Pakistan. India has, however, denied all charges, the ISI report added.
ISI report withstanding, Pakistan’s military bureaucratic complex continues to ask questions on Indian take of 26/11 Mumbai attack case. Fresh crop of 47 questions on Headley dwell on additional information on alleged LeT operative’s activities in India, including the ones on Rahul Bhat S/o Mahesh Bhat, asking questions on Headley’s interaction with the film maker. There are questions on his multiple visits in the note verbale of Pakistan’s Home Ministry seeking all the "credible evidence". The evidence refers to the information New Delhi claims to have collected against the masterminds and operatives of the 2008 and is based on the interrogation of Headley by a team of the National Investigation Agency in the United States. Headley is reported to have made nine visits to India between 2006 and 2009 and is believed to have revealed his contacts. The information has been shared with Pakistan, as per Indian sources. Pakistan in the new questionnaire is seeking additional information on that. India considers the questionnaire an evasive tactic, while Pakistan continues to harp on insufficient evidence failing to stand the judicial scrutiny.
The zero sum game continues, as India continues to link a comprehensive dialogue on conflict resolution in Kashmir or other matters of mutual concern to booking, prosecuting and getting a judicial verdict on those involved in 26/11 Mumbai militant attack, while Pakistan pleads its inability to push the case through the maze of its judiciary. There is no middle ground in sight, as Kashmir continues to bleed!
Yaar Zinda, Sohbat Baqi
[Reunion is subordinate to survival]
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