It is the time to reduce the gap between the business community and the bureaucra
D. Suba Chandran
The nature, scope, limitations and opportunities that the cross-LoC trade poses to J&K and the larger Indo-Pak relations were discussed during the last week March by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) in its interactions in Jammu and Srinagar. The business community is euphoric, while the bureaucracy is circumspect, in seeing this initiative as an economic confidence building measure. Where lies the problem? What could be done to reduce the gap between the business community and the bureaucracy?
Both stakeholders – the business community and the bureaucracy, in principle agree on the need for this initiative and sustain it. The primary problem between them, however, is in terms of how they see the cross-LoC trade in terms of the nature and objectives. While the business communities in J&K across the LoC see this initiative as an economic CBM between two parts of J&K, the bureaucracy sees this as a political CBM at the Indo-Pak level, involving the Kashmiris. While the business communities on both sides of the LoC see this as their right, the bureaucracies see this as a concession.
Outside J&K, though the political constituencies irrespective of opposition would like to move forward on cross-LoC interactions, they are slowed down by the pressure from the intelligence agencies. Like all other agencies, intelligence community in India and Pakistan will remain conservative and extremely cautious to any new initiative. From the mighty US to a tiny island in Southeast Asia, this will remain the hard reality. This is unlikely to change in the near future.
Hence, it remains the primary responsibility of the political constituency to consider the political benefits vis-à-vis security costs, and take a decision on what is in the long term interest of India, Pakistan and Indo-Pak relations vis-à-vis J&K. Bus and truck services are the only J&K specific CBM at the Indo-Pak level; fortunately for both countries, there is a strong support for this initiative at the ground level in J&K.
What need to be understood at the political level are the negative fall-outs of any failure regarding these two initiatives in J&K. In the last couple of years, both the bus and truck services have created a new hope on both sides of the J&K, in terms of involving the Kashmiris in the Indo-Pak peace process. Today, both the business community and the civil society are upset with the pace of progress. Even those sections, which wholeheartedly supported this CBM, are today cynical on the success of this initiative, if the cross-LoC crawls at a snail pace. Business communities complain – that is not even a barter trade, but also a blind trade.
The government in Delhi is in a danger of losing an opportunity in J&K, which has popular support. With the relations between India and Pakistan likely to get revived after, what is projected by the media as cricket diplomacy, both countries should strengthen the cross-LoC CBMs, and perhaps consider even expanding it.
On the other hand, the business communities across the LoC should understand the inherent problems of the nature and scope of the cross-LoC trade. This is neither a bilateral trade between two countries nor a bilateral trade between India and Pakistan through J&K. Cross-LoC trade, in fact, is unique in many perspectives. While the business communities on both sides may be keen on “trade through other Kashmir” than “trade to other Kashmir”, there is a need to pursue a step-by-step approach.
In terms of problems relating the basket of goods and the items actually traded across the LoC, one should understand that this is not Kashmir specific; this problem is the bane of the SAARC trade, where the countries of South Asia have been known for making non-economic decisions and willing to live with the costs of non-cooperation. Countries in SAARC simply do not want to learn on how to take the economic cooperation forward; even if they understand the need to work together, the implementation process is cumbersome and painfully slow. In terms of proxy trade which the business communities are apprehensive about, being in the business, they would know it better, that there cannot be a trade route, anywhere in the world, where it is not exploited by scrupulous outsiders.
Given the limitations, how to make best use of the cross-LoC trade? While the cynics will argue that the Indo-Pak relations will never improve and Kashmir will always remain hostile to the bilateral relations, there are serious reasons to remain optimistic.
Last decade, despite serious crises in 2001 and 2008 saw significant progress between the two countries. While the previous decade started in the backdrop of Kandahar hostage crisis, militant attack on the Indian Parliament and political instability in Pakistan, both countries were able to come together and settle in a positive phase during 2004-2008. A comparative analysis of the last four decades will reveal, the last decade witnessed a stronger peace process and bold initiatives – both in terms of conception (Musharraf’s proposals) and implementation (cross-LoC interactions) vis-à-vis J&K. This did not happen in the previous decades.
While this decade also started with a negative backdrop, as both countries grow into this decade, peace process is inevitable. This is where one has to remain optimistic. Being pessimistic, suspicious and interpreting every issue as a conspiracy, is an option, but what will it achieve? Being optimistic means pursuing a painful process of convincing various stakeholders that peace is everyone’s interest; as far as cross-LoC trade is concerned, there is so much of hope and promise. What’s needed is to convince the governments the need for multiple CBMs at the bilateral level and at J&K level. What is also needed is a collective approach by the business communities and civil societies both inside J&K and outside.
D. Suba Chandran, PhD, is the director,
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi, and Visiting Professor, Pakistan Studies Programme
Jamia University, New Delhi.