Some important developments in the field of military operations, retaliation, diplomacy and global affairs have brought Iran under a broad scanner of international affairs. The focus has sharpened since Iran is situated in a highly sensitive and strategic geographical zone that has potential to impact regional, political and diplomatic activities at an international level immensely.
Iran is otherwise also a centre of storm due to its nuclear ambitions and international deals attached with its promises made to the world community.
The post Iranian revolution of seventies developments and the US diplomatic gymnastics with Iran over a long period of four decades now has a serious connection with the current logjam and proactive approach adopted by the all concerned. The US action to neutralise the combat forces of Iran in Iraq with the death of Iran's most powerful general Qasim Suleimani in a highly sophisticated night attack is aimed at to bring Iran to the negotiating table on its nuclear-preparedness. Suleimani has also been blamed by the US for planning terror attacks in both east and west of Iran in the near future. The US would never like Iran to develop as a nation with the nuclear capability in the Asian region. The aspirations in this regard of the US are in tune with the intent of the other nuclear states and the G20 nations.
Iran aspires to emerge as a powerful Islamic nation given the scenario of Pakistan's direct and indirect support to the extension of terrorism beyond its boundary. Since Pakistan is a nuclear capability nation having the terror infrastructures on its land, and also the connections and capacity to strike at will, therefore US is alarmed with advancement of one more Islamic nation to join Pakistan in the race. Though Iran has enough of checks and balances to avoid the banner of terrorism yet it has developed serious attachment with the terror capacity and control in the areas adjoining Balochistan in Pakistan. Sensing that Pakistan has lost the leadership of the Islamic nations, slowly and steadily, consequent upon its recent historical, political, strategic and diplomatic reverses in the international scenario, Iran aspires to take over as the leader through the 'wild card entry'. However, its ambitions are marked by the US with concern and interest.
Iran's retaliatory action against several military installations of US in Iraq has not been able to do much damage to the US assets in West Asia. The human casualty has not been affected as was expected by the Iranian strategists. The admission of Iran regarding its serious error of judgement in regard to destroying a Ukrainian plane has created several new issues of diplomatic concern. It has given Russia an outside chance to jump into the fray in which US is already the most proactive player of the game. It has also created an uproar within Iran against the government and its policies at an alarming and broader canvass.
The recent one more attack by Iran on Iraq's AlBalad Airforce installation has left the Iraqi forces injured and again no US strategic assets could be damaged by it. The US military and strategic intelligence is far superior to the information and capability of Iran in this context. In spite of US having more than seven million forces stationed in the areas around Iran from Turkey to Central Asia and South West Asia, Iran is not taking the risk to go for any major offensive against the US. It is by and large taking a balanced approach than to escalate the tension, militarily speaking. Recent parleys with the Indian counterpart of the Iranian minister of foreign affairs to initiate a dialogue with the US regarding the current situation is tantamount to Iran's safe-play. It also speaks of its comparatively mature approach in a highly volatile scenario in which triggers would like to take the recourse anytime.
The home situation in Iran has not been comfortable for its government for a long time now. The "aura and glory" of Iranian revolution has melted to a large extent. The people in Iran have come to terms with the realities of the outer world. One after the other, the prominent persons are opting exodus from Iran. The latest is the only Iranian woman Olympic medal winner in Taekwondo, Kemia Elijah Deh who accused the Iranian establishment of exploitation of women players, political hypocrisy and injustice. She has also registered her protest in context of the injustice inflicted upon millions of women in Iran and has vowed to champion their cause in exile.
People, after the admission of Iran of its gunning down the Ukranian plane, came out on streets to protest against its government led by the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. They raised slogans against the government and sought resignation of Khamenei. The big protests of the students outside the Amir Kabir University have received world attention. The arrest of the British Envoy in Iran Rob Mackier, who was taking the photographs of the protests, has been taken by the world community very seriously. The UK has asked Iran to apologise for its act of arresting the Ambassador as the act is clearly in violation of the Vienna Convention. The European Union has also condemned the action of Iranian government in this regard. Israel is also getting proactive and has cancelled visit of its foreign minister to UAE consequent upon the escalation of tension in the area. Canada is not lagging behind and wants answers from the Iranian President Hassan Rohani about the Ukranian aircraft tragedy that killed around 200 on board.
The US President, Donald Trump has issued statements outrightly supporting the people of Iran in their protests and rallies against the government. With these developments, Iran will be positioned in a somewhat contradictory and difficult position to take it's current challenges head on. In a situation of external hostility, no government would like to invite people's wrath in its backyard. Then serious errors of judgement that would give outside chance to the third parties to meddle into such affairs is developing into a no-return situation for Iran.
The US would never like the repeat of Iraninan revolution of seventies and would rather rely on support from within and outside Iran for its approach to take Iran by horns. The mistakes of Iran will add juice to America's diet on the dining table. US has accused Iran of Genocide of Iran's protesting citizens and has lent open support to the protesting thousands of Iranians on the streets. The selection of Iranian origin astronaut Jasmine Moghbeli by the NASA as one of its future space travellers is being used by the US as an emotional chip against the Iranian regime in the current scenario.
Iran's international ambitions have met a serious stumbling block in the current scenario post Suleimani's killing and the Ukranian plane tragedy. Any further provocation will be counterproductive. Some opinion makers are talking in terms of World War III which has further cornered Iran into isolation, unfortunately.
The US interests in the West Asia and its area of influence and control in areas around the Asian and European main land will lead to further escalation of tension in the days to come. Since the oil politics has continued to be the main issue of concern in the Middle East, no side would like to easily calm down. India and Israel are making efforts to play their role in the given scenario and are trying to use their relations with their friends and neioghbours around to avoid any serious implications.
Iran is undoubtedly the current international focus, it’s people have been put to the biggest challenge of the last four decades. Historically, Iran has been a good strategist to build relations and friendship but its war-hysteria sometimes overshadows its sane approach. This time the challenges need somewhat an unconventional solution so that a long term perspective is evolved that will rewrite history of Iran in the current context with future in sight.....Hope it comes true.....!